What Would Joseph P. Kennedy Sr. Do?

Navigating the coming collapse for big financial gains!!!

Saturday, August 13, 2005

Same As It Ever Was

I present to you what I consider my greatest work to date.

Please be advised that the annotations are not representative of Elliot Wave theory; they are placed on the chart to highlight distinguishing features.

The yellow 'subsets' are minor patterns within the larger, broader pattern which is highlighted by the red numbers.

The gray box on the current SPX chart is a hypothetical; featuring the possibility of a final top as the month of August comes to a conclusion.

Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Measuring

With Liquidity-G and his gang of Merry Pranksters still measuring; I thought it would be prudent to take a few measurements of our own.

NDX:

At 1629.27, November 7th, 2005 marked the closing high for the bull move off the October 2002 lows.

At 804.64, October 7th, 2002 marked the closing low for the bear move off the March 2000 highs and the beginning of the bull market.

The NDX has moved 824.63 points, or 102%, over 777 trading days from the trough close to the peak close. This averages out to 1.06 points and 0.185% per trading day.

SPX:

At 1245.04, August 3rd, 2005 marked the closing high for the bull move off the October 2002 lows.

At 776.76, October 9th, 2002 marked the closing low for the bear move off the March 2000 highs and the beginning of the bull market.

The SPX has moved 468.28 points, or 60%, over 710 trading days from the trough close to the peak close. This averages out to 0.66 points and 0.085% per trading day.

NASDAQ:

At 2218.15, August 1st, 2005 marked the closing high for the bull move off the October 2002 lows.

At 1114.11, October 9th, 2002 marked the closing low for the bear move off the March 2000 highs and the beginning of the bull market.

The NASDAQ has moved 1104.04 points, or 99%, over 710 trading days from the trough close to the peak close. This averages out to 1.56 points and 0.139% per trading day.

INDU:


At 10,940.50, March 4th, 2005 marked the closing high for the bull move off the October 2002 lows.

At 7286.27, October 9th, 2002 marked the closing low for the bear move off the January 2000 highs and the beginning of the bull market.

The INDU has moved 3654.23 points, or 50%, over 604 trading days from the trough close to the peak close. This averages out to 6.05 points and 0.828% per trading day.

Of course, it is your responsibility to check these figures for accuracy. Anyhow, now we have a better understanding of where we are based on where we were.

Next up: comparing said figures to other bull moves in history.

Tuesday, August 09, 2005

Green Light?

With more of the same out of the FOMC today, I'm beginning to wonder if Liquidity-G has just handed Wall Street a blank check throughout the remainder of the year.

Death by one thousand cuts.. but just enough breathing room to leverage the years ending in five phenomena?

I was expecting Old Alan to dump some water on the fire by removing the measured pace words, or at least put more emphasis on the mounting inflationary pressures (energy, unit-labor costs).

Sellers need to hold the highs on the NDX and, perhaps more importantly, the DOW, or my collapse countdown is likely pushed further out.

Will I be forced to change the title of the blog to What Would Steve Harmon Do? I certainly hope not.

Remember, Greenspan was handed the October 1987 crash just two months after taking the Fed Chairman job (Thursday of this week will mark Greenspan's 18th year as Federal Reserve Governor). Will his likely successor endure the same fate or will Greenspan bookend his legacy with crashes?

In the interim, I'm trying to find the right layout for this blog as well as becoming accustomed to logging my thoughts via this medium. Please bare with me for a while-- as I intend to turn this blog into something extraordinary.

Enjoy!

Zack

Monday, August 08, 2005

It's Official

Sunday, August 07, 2005

Mania: Signs of a Top?

Mania: Signs of a Top?

1. When Wall Street's most widely followed momentum stock, Google, released earnings nobody knew or understood what the numbers represented. It took nearly twenty-four hours before some sort of understanding was established.

2. Financial station CNBC airs a daily program called Mad Money where the host, Jim Cramer, actively touts and pans different stocks-- actually moving the market on his "words".

3. When a company releases better than expected financial numbers, the stock does not then precede to trade toward a higher valuation; it gaps there in a matter of minutes.

4. Microsoft, the largest technology company in the world at nearly 300 billion dollars, spikes nearly 10% in three days on a cover story by Barrons, a weekend financial publication.

5. Energy price spikes have always preceeded economic contractions however when Crude Oil futures move higher by dollars per barrel, stock prices, in general, shrug it off. When Crude prices drop by thirty or sixty cents; speculators take it as a cue to move stock prices agrressively higher.

6. Baidu.com (BIDU), "The Chinese Google", IPOs and closes nearly 500% higher than the offering price; registering the best performing day for a intitial public offering since the 2000 equity market bubble.

7. On August 18th, 2005, PowerShares Capital Management LLC is set to debut the first microcap exchange traded fund (ETF).

Friday, August 05, 2005

U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices

U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices

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This is your home for unique analysis with a (currently) bearish bent.